There are several interesting questions about any possible extra-terrestrial intelligent life that may exist in the universe. First, does it exist? Are we alone or are there other intelligences out there? If we decide to postulate an affirmative answer to the existence question, however, then it's reasonable to wonder what the other intelligent species are like. How intelligent are they? What level of technology do they have? What is their culture like?
We don't actually have to discover alien life to have some clue as to the answers to these questions, however. Looking at our own history, we can pick out a key turning point, after which technological advancement has proceeded exponentially. Around 10 to 15 thousand years ago our ancestors first settled down and began farming. Now, we are a few decades from building machines that are smarter than us. The agricultural revolution allowed for a social structure within which a few people had the leisure time and resources with which to innovate. These innovations then provided more people with the resources to innovate, and we advanced at an exponential rate from that point on.
We can reasonably generalize this method of advancement to many other possible types of intelligent species. They won't advance much until at least a few members of the species have the time and resources necessary to innovate. Once that situation occurs, innovation will probably proceed at an exponential rate.
Evolution seems to proceed through small or moderate changes. Major mutations don't tend to work out well for the individual involved, and, even if the individual survives, it is less likely to pass its genes on. Assuming that most alien species also evolve relatively slowly, then it will likely take a large number of generations for an alien species to make significant advancements in intelligence (just as it took our own species a long time between improvements in intelligence).
Consequently, most species should develop their equivalent of an agricultural society (i.e. a situation in which some members of their species have the time and resources with which to innovate) while they are at or near the minimum intelligence level necessary to do so. Once they reach the minimum intelligence, they will have a long time to make this advancement before their intelligence improves. Furthermore, even if they don't initially advance, and they do evolve an increased intelligence, that increase is likely to be small - and with each increase in intelligence the advancement to an agricultural society (or their equivalent) only becomes more likely.
Therefore, most intelligent species should achieve the equivalent of an agricultural revolution at a roughly similar level of intelligence (with in a fraction of an order of magnitude, anyway). And, given the opportunities for exponential advancement once a few individuals have the resources with which to innovate, a species achieving the equivalent of an agricultural revolution ought to quickly (in the grand scheme of things) reach our level of technological advancement.
Once a species obtains our level of technology, however, then evolution probably doesn't play a crucial role any longer. With our level of technology, we are almost certain either to destroy ourselves, or to make the simple advancements necessary to design computers that are more intelligent than ourselves (which will then be able to design more intelligent versions of themselves - increasing their intelligence exponentially). We may also begin redesigning ourselves - increasing human intelligence exponentially. If we survive long enough to start down this path, our available intellectual power will only be limited by physical laws - which should limit aliens equally as well.
Thus most intelligent alien species probably fall into one of three categories. They may have significantly less than human intelligence, and not have achieved their equivalent of an agricultural revolution. They might be roughly equivalent to us intellectually, in which case they will probably be equivalent to us technologically in a very short time. Or, they may be many orders of magnitude smarter than us (if they have already taken the next step, and begun exponential technological advancement of their intelligence by building super-intelligent computers or super-intelligent versions of their own species).
*One critique of this argument is that it is based on what happened here on Earth - which can not logically be considered the standard for the rest of the universe. The fact of the matter, however, is that Earth history is used only as an illustration for logical ideas of how technological advancement occurs. It is not intended as proof of anything.
**Another critique is that not all alien intelligences are necessarily capable of technological advancement. Take dolphins for example. They might be extremely intelligent, but even if they become much more intelligent, they probably won't advance much technologically because they live in the ocean and lack hands. A species like the dolphins could become super-intelligent prior to developing technology.
That argument is a valid one, and it means my argument can only be applied to species capable of technological advancement. And, if a species, like the dolphins, became ultra-intelligent and then evolved hands, they might totally break the mold. That said, some biologists argue that hands and the ability to use tools drives the evolution of intelligence - so maybe non-technological species never become all that intelligent.
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