If we avoid
catastrophe (i.e. the end of the world or the fall of civilization), then we
still face the very real possibility of a future where we are worse off then we
are today. Furthermore, technological advancement may make it possible for
our future to be so different from our modern world that we can barely
begin to judge whether the future is good or bad. This page is intended to
list possible dystopian futures - although, frankly, the authors of this website
are not sure that there is a possible future that can definitively be called
good - so some of these dystopias may actually be something we should hope for.
Again, we would like to link each listed possibility its own page which would
analyze the dystopia in detail. If anyone has done a great deal of
thought about a dystopian possibility, and would like to contribute to this
page, please feel free to submit a written analysis to admin@thefuturewatch.com. We
will, of course, give full credit to any author whose analysis is used on the
site. Please include documentation for any controversial statements of
fact.
The Income Split: It's become quite common for political commentators to remark
on how the income gap between the wealthy and the working class has rapidly
widened during the last few years. This trend is likely to
continue. Advancing technology will allow machines to replace workers in more and
more occupations. As a result, owners of capital (i.e. machines) will accrue
a greater and greater return on their capital. At the same time, anyone
who does monotonous work (the sort of work that can be done by a machine) will
find that there is less and less call for his or her services. We already
see this effect somewhat as a result of lowered trade barriers (we ship many
simple, task-oriented jobs overseas), but advances in computer and robot technology will
affect far more working class people than trade. In the long run, we may
see society divided between those who own the world, and those who merely
survive on it's leavings.
A
Replacement Species: If we
keep researching, we
are going to become adept at manipulating our genetic code. As a
result, it will be possible to redesign the human species. If we restrict
our tinkering to small changes (good looks, high IQ, health, etc.) then this
advancement may cause only limited problems. But, in all likelihood, some parents
will want to give their child every advantage, and competition will probably
lead to a series of more and more highly modified babies. We may
quickly end up designing children who are far beyond us in intelligence, do not
share some common human personality traits, and are physically superior.
When there are a sufficient number of these advanced children, humanity will
become obsolete, and we will only continue to exist on the sufferance of our
successor race.
A Better Tool Makes Us Obsolete:
If we keep improving computer technology at
the rate we have for the past few decades, then computers will eventually make
us unnecessary even for the most creative or intuitive tasks. A sufficiently
advanced computer could perfectly mimic the processes of the human mind.
Furthermore, once we build a computer that is significantly better at
designing new computers than humans are, computers may get smarter at an
exponential rate. We may wake up one day to find that all scientific
research is directed by computers, that the most satisfying works of art are
created by computers, and that the AIs in our desktops make better conversation
than any of our friends. The best we may have to hope for is to be well
cared for children in a nursery run by our machines.
TV Makes Reality Boring:
TV won't end our interest in the real world. But
virtual reality might. Even today, most people in wealthy countries spend a large
fraction of their lives staring at a two-dimensional screen. For many people, the
effect on their lives is comparable only to drug abuse - they watch tv when they could be playing
a sport, learning a skill, making friends, or connecting with family.
Virtual reality promises to be much more addictive. Technology may advance to the
point where virtual reality users feel like they are in a realistic
3-dimensional world - complete with sight, sound, smell, taste, and touch. In a rich, technologically
advanced society, where it's simple to take care of physical needs, this
sort of entertainment could easily prove irresistible to a very large
percentage of society. In virtual reality's defense, however, one could easily make
the argument that it might not be so bad if everyone was happily
plugged into their favorite virtual world, and no one had to live in or worry
about the real world.
Democracy Dies:
Many people
in Western societies believe that some version of a democratic government and some
form of a free-market economy are the inevitable evolutionary endpoints
for all societies. Yet, they might be wrong. China is modernizing
rapidly, yet is retaining its authoritarian government.
Russia has rebuilt a version of its authoritarian system.
Religious fanaticism has scored victories against freedom around
the world. Corrupt, heavy-handed government intervention into free-markets is still a fixture
even in the West. Terrorism has demonstrated its ability to
use Western freedoms against free societies. During this next century, the world
may see China grow as a powerful alternative to democratic governments, while at the same
time, the West begins rolling back its freedoms in the name of
anti-terrorism.
We Stagnate: People
point at the rapid pace of technological advancement as evidence that
continued advancement is inevitable. It is not, however. We have achieved
our rapid advancement by encouraging innovative thought and by devoting
large amounts of resources to research and development. A number of
factors could combine to stifle future technological progress.
Ecological disasters may sap resources and cause wars. Terrorism may
cause wars and may cause governments to limit their citizens' freedoms - and
thus their ability to innovate. A growing retiree population may
vote themselves money from government treasures and sap resources from
working generations. Each problem would make the others worse,
and would take resources that are needed to adequately deal with the others.
Furthermore, new, unpredicted problems will continually arise. Instead of
being in front of our problems, we may end up playing
catchup to the most urgent while our other problems get further
ahead.
We Live in a Simulation:
We might not even
be here in a physical, biological, sense anyway. We could be part
of a complex computer simulation. Or we might be biological beings living
in a virtual reality world. These scenarios actually might not be
that bad, but you can make an argument that they're
dystopias.