The Future Watch
Donate Here to Support The Future Watch
Home Threat Board Archives About The Future Watch Why Donate Contact Us


Table of Contents:

-The Drake Equation and what it may mean for us

-Possible catastrophic events

-Ways to prevent catastrophe

-Columns

-The Survival Plan

-Possible utopias

-Possible dystopias

-Book recommendations

-Movie recommendations

-Future technology

-Free literature

-Personal survival

-Survival Gear

-Public forum

-Links


The Spread of Disease

TB Andy has made quite a splash in the news this week by flying to Europe, flying around Europe, flying to Canada, and then crossing the border back into the U.S. - all while he had a very drug resistant form of tuberculosis (TB).  He has been condemned for exposing several other people to the disease, but he has responded by arguing that his doctors told him it was safe for him to travel (the CDC denies this).  Unfortunately, the focus on whether Andy is or isn't to blame for his actions misses the more important point - that neither the U.S. nor the international health system is set up to respond to and contain a pandemic.

CDC officials knew about TB Andy's condition before his trip, yet they did not place him on the no-fly list, nor did they detain him for treatment.  In fact, if Andy has told the truth, they may have even ok'd his trip. 

After Andy arrived in Rome, the CDC tracked him down, but instead of immediately informing their Italian counterparts of his condition, they waited to do so until he was already on a flight to Prague.  Furthermore, the Italians have admitted that even if they had known of Andy's condition, they would have only offered him treatment - to detain him would have been a violation of his rights under Italian law.

Then, Andy was able to fly back to Canada - despite the CDC having finally taken the step of putting Andy on the U.S. No Fly List.  Once in Canada, Andy casually drove past unalarmed border officials, and back into the U.S.

Now, we got lucky with Andy - he has a bad form of TB, but he's not particularly symptomatic, and he probably wasn't very contagious.  That said, we may someday have to deal with a disease carrier that carries a truly scary bug.  The Bird Flu could take down millions.  Certain forms of Ebola have a better than 90% mortality rate.  The Black Death killed over 1/3 the population of Europe.  If someone carrying a newly mutated contagious disease acts like TB Andy, our current disease response system will fail to prevent them from spreading their infection worldwide.

Western society has recently proven willing to sacrifice important freedoms and protections in order to protect itself from terrorism.  Yet, when it comes to detaining people with dangerous diseases, we have shown a strange reluctance to infringe upon individual rights - even when that individual has shown a reckless disregard for the safety of his fellow man.

There is a man named Robert Daniels who has spent 8 months locked in a hospital room because he has a particularly virulent strain of TB.  He was detained after he exposed several other people to the disease by failing to take his medication and by refusing to wear a mask in public.  Yet, instead of condemning him for behavior that was at best reckless, and at worst criminally negligent, many commentators have expressed concern for him - and some of them argue that his constitutional rights are being violated and that he should be freed.  Similar concerns are now being raised with regard to TB Andy (who is also now detained).  Likewise, there is still significant opposition to jailing HIV positive individuals who have unprotected sex with uninfected people - even when the HIV positive individual fails to inform their partner of their HIV status.

We need to re-think our approach to dealing with dangerous diseases.  A naturally occurring pandemic could kill hundreds of thousands or millions of people in the U.S. alone - the only terrorist attack that could equal it would be an attack with biological weaponry (i.e. the man-made equivalent of a natural pandemic).  In either case, health authorities would be completely justified in detaining as many people as necessary to control the spread of the disease (until, of course, scientists discovered a vaccine or cure).  In a worst case scenario, it might even be necessary to declare martial law and invoke a shoot-on-sight order to keep people in their homes and to prevent the disease from spreading.

In order to prevent conditions from preceding to this point, however, we need to be prepared whenever possible to stop the spread of dangerous diseases while there are only a few infected individuals.  Anyone with a particularly contagious lethal disease should be detained for treatment immediately - and not released until they are incapable of spreading the disease to others.  Those with rare, but normally non-lethal or non-contagious diseases should be evaluated based on the risk of their disease mutating into a more dangerous form.  If this seems likely to be a possibility, then they should be given the chance to take appropriate steps to prevent the spread of their disease (i.e. by wearing face masks and following a treatment plan).  If they fail to follow these steps, however, then they should also be detained until they are incapable of spreading the disease.

In order to improve our chances of quickly identifying new diseases and preventing their spread, we ought to consider instituting a system of mandatory health check ups and inoculations.  This could be part of the universal health care system the U.S. is likely to institute in the next 5 to 20 years.

We have proven our willingness to sacrifice freedom in the fight against terrorism (in fact, we've almost certainly gone overboard in doing so).  We must now face up to the facts that we're overdue for a natural pandemic and that today's subway bombings pale in comparison to tomorrow's bio-terrorism.  We have to be prepared to limit the spread of contagious lethal diseases.

Related Links

Catastrophic Events

Personal Survival Ideas

Survival Gear

Preserving Our Species
Slashdot   Slashdot It!

Seed Newsvine